{
  "_meta": {
    "analysis": "rigor_analysis.py \u2014 distribution-level rigor for the ADRIZ-Q real-QPU burn (replaces best-of-N optimum claims with honest numbers)",
    "job_id": "d911mveu9n7c73alroig",
    "backend": "ibm_kingston",
    "usage_quantum_seconds": 53,
    "n_circuits": 87,
    "offline": true,
    "ibm_key_read": false,
    "author": "Mark Ludwikowski <markl02us@yahoo.com>"
  },
  "summary": {
    "job_id": "d911mveu9n7c73alroig",
    "backend": "ibm_kingston",
    "n_circuits": 87,
    "concentrated_above_null": [
      "OPT1_mogi_single",
      "OPT3_assoc_maxcut_p4",
      "OPT6_dozier_subpixel",
      "OPT8_spectral_unmix",
      "OPT9_fusion_tasking_p4",
      "N2",
      "N3"
    ],
    "best_of_n_only": [
      "OPT2_multisource_p1",
      "OPT4_siteselect_p3",
      "OPT5_insar_unwrap",
      "OPT7_plume_so2",
      "N1"
    ],
    "optimum_not_measured": [],
    "mlae_edge_survived_hw": [
      "N4",
      "N6"
    ],
    "mlae_edge_partial": [],
    "n_optimisation_cards": 12
  },
  "items": [
    {
      "id": "OPT1_mogi_single",
      "item": "Mogi single-source volcanic inversion (one-hot QUBO -> QAOA, 8 qubits)",
      "category": "optimisation",
      "rigor": {
        "shots": 4096,
        "optimum_value": 495.52382211107175,
        "sense": "min",
        "p_optimum_measured": 0.006103515625,
        "expected_value": 1003.9638962342095,
        "approx_ratio": 0.02295413952076832,
        "uniform_null_p_optimum": 0.00390625,
        "uniform_null_best_of_shots_p": 0.9999998909360707,
        "uniform_null_approx_ratio": 0.01584073845991506,
        "concentration_vs_null": 1.5625,
        "n_states": 256,
        "exp_lo": 1002.0006441806272,
        "exp_hi": 1005.8672988926911,
        "tvd_hw_vs_sim": 0.202392578125,
        "beats_random_null": true,
        "card_kind": "decode_qubo",
        "n_qubits": 8,
        "reported_optimum": 495.52382211107175,
        "p_optimum_sim_aer": 0.006591796875,
        "approx_ci_lo": 0.01929645834466953,
        "approx_ci_hi": 0.02672683052144942,
        "honest_verdict": "CONCENTRATED: QPU put 0.0061 probability on the optimum, 1.6x the uniform-random null 0.0039 \u2014 genuine signal, not best-of-N."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "OPT2_multisource_p1",
      "item": "MultiSource P1 volcanic model-selection (dense-Gram QUBO -> global QAOA p=1, 8 qubits)",
      "category": "optimisation",
      "rigor": {
        "shots": 4096,
        "optimum_value": 154.840322793695,
        "sense": "min",
        "p_optimum_measured": 0.0009765625,
        "expected_value": 4595.364552887273,
        "approx_ratio": 0.7698233363567129,
        "uniform_null_p_optimum": 0.00390625,
        "uniform_null_best_of_shots_p": 0.9999998909360707,
        "uniform_null_approx_ratio": 0.7415301147186778,
        "concentration_vs_null": 0.25,
        "n_states": 256,
        "exp_lo": 4477.95395095475,
        "exp_hi": 4717.882707044175,
        "tvd_hw_vs_sim": 0.20068359375,
        "beats_random_null": false,
        "card_kind": "decode_qubo",
        "n_qubits": 8,
        "reported_optimum": 154.840322793695,
        "p_optimum_sim_aer": 0.000244140625,
        "approx_ci_lo": 0.7634725501660979,
        "approx_ci_hi": 0.7759093701736275,
        "honest_verdict": "BEST-OF-N ONLY: optimum measured p=0.0010 ~ random null 0.0039 (x0.25); the optimum surfaces by shot count, the QPU did NOT concentrate on it."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "OPT3_assoc_maxcut_p4",
      "item": "Detection-association correlation-clustering MaxCut (warm-start QAOA p=1, 10 qubits)",
      "category": "optimisation",
      "rigor": {
        "shots": 4096,
        "optimum_value": 27.599999999999987,
        "sense": "max",
        "p_optimum_measured": 0.029541015625,
        "expected_value": 22.879883495976095,
        "approx_ratio": 0.8289812860860908,
        "uniform_null_p_optimum": 0.005859375,
        "uniform_null_best_of_shots_p": 0.9999999999648216,
        "uniform_null_approx_ratio": 0.7614674900441537,
        "concentration_vs_null": 5.041666666666667,
        "n_states": 1024,
        "exp_lo": 22.76471133429993,
        "exp_hi": 22.989699379479504,
        "tvd_hw_vs_sim": 0.5654296875,
        "beats_random_null": true,
        "card_kind": "maxcut",
        "n_qubits": 10,
        "p_optimum_sim_aer": 0.012939453125,
        "approx_ci_lo": 0.824808381677534,
        "approx_ci_hi": 0.8329601224449099,
        "honest_verdict": "CONCENTRATED: QPU put 0.0295 probability on the optimum, 5.0x the uniform-random null 0.0059 \u2014 genuine signal, not best-of-N."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "OPT4_siteselect_p3",
      "item": "Ground-sensor placement budgeted max-coverage (QUBO -> QAOA, 8 qubits)",
      "category": "optimisation",
      "rigor": {
        "shots": 4096,
        "optimum_value": -4.2200063954665925,
        "sense": "min",
        "p_optimum_measured": 0.00732421875,
        "expected_value": -1.3992145184621592,
        "approx_ratio": 0.33156691894241846,
        "uniform_null_p_optimum": 0.0078125,
        "uniform_null_best_of_shots_p": 0.9999999999999888,
        "uniform_null_approx_ratio": 0.1940193502077432,
        "concentration_vs_null": 0.9375,
        "n_states": 256,
        "exp_lo": -1.435563391165977,
        "exp_hi": -1.3626839527477175,
        "tvd_hw_vs_sim": 0.17041015625,
        "beats_random_null": false,
        "card_kind": "decode_qubo",
        "n_qubits": 8,
        "reported_optimum": -4.2200063954665925,
        "p_optimum_sim_aer": 0.01025390625,
        "approx_ci_lo": 0.32291039990166887,
        "approx_ci_hi": 0.34018038283263113,
        "honest_verdict": "BEST-OF-N ONLY: optimum measured p=0.0073 ~ random null 0.0078 (x0.94); the optimum surfaces by shot count, the QPU did NOT concentrate on it."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "OPT5_insar_unwrap",
      "item": "InSAR L1 phase unwrapping (QUBO -> QAOA, 8 qubits, Etna patch)",
      "category": "optimisation",
      "rigor": {
        "shots": 4096,
        "optimum_value": 1.0,
        "sense": "min",
        "p_optimum_measured": 0.010498046875,
        "expected_value": 30.086181640625,
        "approx_ratio": 0.9110514322916666,
        "uniform_null_p_optimum": 0.0078125,
        "uniform_null_best_of_shots_p": 0.9999999999999888,
        "uniform_null_approx_ratio": 0.8440366972477065,
        "concentration_vs_null": 1.34375,
        "n_states": 256,
        "exp_lo": 29.1174560546875,
        "exp_hi": 31.094317626953124,
        "tvd_hw_vs_sim": 0.278564453125,
        "beats_random_null": false,
        "card_kind": "decode_qubo",
        "n_qubits": 8,
        "reported_optimum": 1.0,
        "p_optimum_sim_aer": 0.00927734375,
        "approx_ci_lo": 0.9079684476239964,
        "approx_ci_hi": 0.9140138958572246,
        "honest_verdict": "BEST-OF-N ONLY: optimum measured p=0.0105 ~ random null 0.0078 (x1.34); the optimum surfaces by shot count, the QPU did NOT concentrate on it."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "OPT6_dozier_subpixel",
      "item": "Dozier bispectral sub-pixel fire retrieval (one-hot QUBO -> QAOA, 8 qubits)",
      "category": "optimisation",
      "rigor": {
        "shots": 4096,
        "optimum_value": 0.025350186626916696,
        "sense": "min",
        "p_optimum_measured": 0.01953125,
        "expected_value": 14.294201574172197,
        "approx_ratio": 0.19098605254610607,
        "uniform_null_p_optimum": 0.00390625,
        "uniform_null_best_of_shots_p": 0.9999998909360707,
        "uniform_null_approx_ratio": 0.025468338157837667,
        "concentration_vs_null": 5.0,
        "n_states": 256,
        "exp_lo": 14.096839288243235,
        "exp_hi": 14.49580235584459,
        "tvd_hw_vs_sim": 0.162841796875,
        "beats_random_null": true,
        "card_kind": "decode_qubo",
        "n_qubits": 8,
        "reported_optimum": 0.025350186626916696,
        "p_optimum_sim_aer": 0.014892578125,
        "approx_ci_lo": 0.1795557110448318,
        "approx_ci_hi": 0.2021760802281719,
        "honest_verdict": "CONCENTRATED: QPU put 0.0195 probability on the optimum, 5.0x the uniform-random null 0.0039 \u2014 genuine signal, not best-of-N."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "OPT7_plume_so2",
      "item": "Volcanic ash/SO2 plume source-term inversion (sparse-selection QUBO -> QAOA, 8 qubits)",
      "category": "optimisation",
      "rigor": {
        "shots": 4096,
        "optimum_value": 0.11724208400702278,
        "sense": "min",
        "p_optimum_measured": 0.00146484375,
        "expected_value": 1.0378350684353832,
        "approx_ratio": 0.78698000568467,
        "uniform_null_p_optimum": 0.00390625,
        "uniform_null_best_of_shots_p": 0.9999998909360707,
        "uniform_null_approx_ratio": 0.7704875425563814,
        "concentration_vs_null": 0.375,
        "n_states": 256,
        "exp_lo": 1.012709019314193,
        "exp_hi": 1.0623232577558355,
        "tvd_hw_vs_sim": 0.203857421875,
        "beats_random_null": false,
        "card_kind": "decode_qubo",
        "n_qubits": 8,
        "reported_optimum": 0.11724208400702278,
        "p_optimum_sim_aer": 0.00048828125,
        "approx_ci_lo": 0.7813135775909619,
        "approx_ci_hi": 0.7927940309178583,
        "honest_verdict": "BEST-OF-N ONLY: optimum measured p=0.0015 ~ random null 0.0039 (x0.38); the optimum surfaces by shot count, the QPU did NOT concentrate on it."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "OPT8_spectral_unmix",
      "item": "Two-endmember spectral unmixing (one-hot fraction QUBO -> QAOA, 6 qubits)",
      "category": "optimisation",
      "rigor": {
        "shots": 4096,
        "optimum_value": 28.86624509648561,
        "sense": "min",
        "p_optimum_measured": 0.064208984375,
        "expected_value": 622.0452714528202,
        "approx_ratio": 0.1517320086201901,
        "uniform_null_p_optimum": 0.015625,
        "uniform_null_best_of_shots_p": 1.0,
        "uniform_null_approx_ratio": 0.05213363770051022,
        "concentration_vs_null": 4.109375,
        "n_states": 64,
        "exp_lo": 615.0489970457022,
        "exp_hi": 629.1507334136311,
        "tvd_hw_vs_sim": 0.14501953125,
        "beats_random_null": true,
        "card_kind": "decode_qubo",
        "n_qubits": 6,
        "reported_optimum": 28.86624509648561,
        "p_optimum_sim_aer": 0.06494140625,
        "approx_ci_lo": 0.141570934682114,
        "approx_ci_hi": 0.16173694030990704,
        "honest_verdict": "CONCENTRATED: QPU put 0.0642 probability on the optimum, 4.1x the uniform-random null 0.0156 \u2014 genuine signal, not best-of-N."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "OPT9_fusion_tasking_p4",
      "item": "System-of-systems sensor tasking (value-redundancy-cost QUBO -> QAOA, 8 qubits)",
      "category": "optimisation",
      "rigor": {
        "shots": 4096,
        "optimum_value": -0.83,
        "sense": "min",
        "p_optimum_measured": 0.010986328125,
        "expected_value": -0.38379516601562513,
        "approx_ratio": 0.5961947203761314,
        "uniform_null_p_optimum": 0.00390625,
        "uniform_null_best_of_shots_p": 0.9999998909360707,
        "uniform_null_approx_ratio": 0.5135746606334842,
        "concentration_vs_null": 2.8125,
        "n_states": 256,
        "exp_lo": -0.39014047241210936,
        "exp_hi": -0.3775990295410156,
        "tvd_hw_vs_sim": 0.15576171875,
        "beats_random_null": true,
        "card_kind": "decode_qubo",
        "n_qubits": 8,
        "reported_optimum": -0.83,
        "p_optimum_sim_aer": 0.01171875,
        "approx_ci_lo": 0.590587357050693,
        "approx_ci_hi": 0.6019370791059814,
        "honest_verdict": "CONCENTRATED: QPU put 0.0110 probability on the optimum, 2.8x the uniform-random null 0.0039 \u2014 genuine signal, not best-of-N."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "N1",
      "item": "N1 \u2014 Okada/DYKE volcanic source inversion (QUBO -> QAOA)",
      "category": "optimisation",
      "rigor": {
        "shots": 4096,
        "optimum_value": 154.840322793695,
        "sense": "min",
        "p_optimum_measured": 0.01171875,
        "expected_value": 2988.187830252505,
        "approx_ratio": 0.7133687835345324,
        "uniform_null_p_optimum": 0.015625,
        "uniform_null_best_of_shots_p": 1.0,
        "uniform_null_approx_ratio": 0.6637710813902846,
        "concentration_vs_null": 0.75,
        "n_states": 64,
        "exp_lo": 2912.3742644302097,
        "exp_hi": 3061.253103226864,
        "tvd_hw_vs_sim": 0.1943359375,
        "beats_random_null": false,
        "card_kind": "decode_qubo",
        "n_qubits": 6,
        "reported_optimum": 154.840322793695,
        "p_optimum_sim_aer": 0.00341796875,
        "approx_ci_lo": 0.7059772482502478,
        "approx_ci_hi": 0.7210383456122598,
        "honest_verdict": "BEST-OF-N ONLY: optimum measured p=0.0117 ~ random null 0.0156 (x0.75); the optimum surfaces by shot count, the QPU did NOT concentrate on it."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "N4",
      "item": "N4 \u2014 Sicily FWI fire-danger exceedance via QAE (MLAE)",
      "category": "estimation",
      "rigor": {
        "card_kind": "mlae_qae",
        "n_qubits": 1,
        "grover_powers": [
          0,
          1,
          2,
          4,
          8
        ],
        "shots_per_level": 256,
        "n_queries": 8960,
        "p_true": 0.25,
        "hw_hits": [
          77,
          255,
          71,
          256,
          66
        ],
        "sim_hits": [
          64,
          256,
          67,
          256,
          60
        ],
        "hw_a_hat": 0.2476516633374061,
        "hw_abs_err": 0.002348336662593903,
        "sim_a_hat": 0.25070946065955924,
        "sim_abs_err": 0.0007094606595592357,
        "mc_mean_abs_err": 0.0041685267857142876,
        "mc_err_ci95": [
          0.0033537248883928603,
          0.005131347656250003
        ],
        "hw_below_mc_ci_lo": true,
        "sim_below_mc_ci_lo": true,
        "verdict": "Quantum edge SURVIVED hardware: HW MLAE abs-err 0.0023 sits below the classical-MC CI lower bound 0.0034 at matched 8960 queries."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "N6",
      "item": "N6 \u2014 MLAE proportion estimation (1q, Grover {1,2,4,8,16})",
      "category": "estimation",
      "rigor": {
        "card_kind": "mlae_qae",
        "n_qubits": 1,
        "grover_powers": [
          1,
          2,
          4,
          8,
          16
        ],
        "shots_per_level": 128,
        "n_queries": 8576,
        "p_true": 0.5,
        "hw_hits": [
          65,
          57,
          60,
          61,
          56
        ],
        "sim_hits": [
          70,
          56,
          67,
          66,
          67
        ],
        "hw_a_hat": 0.4978398967426467,
        "hw_abs_err": 0.002160103257353274,
        "sim_a_hat": 0.5005891207664656,
        "sim_abs_err": 0.0005891207664655562,
        "mc_mean_abs_err": 0.004267723880597016,
        "mc_err_ci95": [
          0.0033562169620646822,
          0.005206438510572148
        ],
        "hw_below_mc_ci_lo": true,
        "sim_below_mc_ci_lo": true,
        "verdict": "Quantum edge SURVIVED hardware: HW MLAE abs-err 0.0022 sits below the classical-MC CI lower bound 0.0034 at matched 8576 queries."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "N2",
      "item": "N2 \u2014 Lava-flow thermal-pixel MaxCut segmentation (9-node)",
      "category": "optimisation",
      "rigor": {
        "shots": 4096,
        "optimum_value": 3.499221704673372,
        "sense": "max",
        "p_optimum_measured": 0.065673828125,
        "expected_value": 2.269623283866284,
        "approx_ratio": 0.648608026417731,
        "uniform_null_p_optimum": 0.00390625,
        "uniform_null_best_of_shots_p": 0.9999998909360707,
        "uniform_null_approx_ratio": 0.5,
        "concentration_vs_null": 16.8125,
        "n_states": 512,
        "exp_lo": 2.2512819434225007,
        "exp_hi": 2.287681927015152,
        "tvd_hw_vs_sim": 0.217041015625,
        "beats_random_null": true,
        "card_kind": "maxcut",
        "n_qubits": 9,
        "p_optimum_sim_aer": 0.0927734375,
        "approx_ci_lo": 0.6433664778701532,
        "approx_ci_hi": 0.6537687863446455,
        "honest_verdict": "CONCENTRATED: QPU put 0.0657 probability on the optimum, 16.8x the uniform-random null 0.0039 \u2014 genuine signal, not best-of-N."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "N3",
      "item": "N3 \u2014 Seismic-swarm onset correlation-clustering MaxCut (10-node)",
      "category": "optimisation",
      "rigor": {
        "shots": 4096,
        "optimum_value": 21.818944431083388,
        "sense": "max",
        "p_optimum_measured": 0.0400390625,
        "expected_value": 12.9372147416717,
        "approx_ratio": 0.5929349507504713,
        "uniform_null_p_optimum": 0.001953125,
        "uniform_null_best_of_shots_p": 0.9996671513538756,
        "uniform_null_approx_ratio": 0.5481233179412733,
        "concentration_vs_null": 20.5,
        "n_states": 1024,
        "exp_lo": 12.83511334689527,
        "exp_hi": 13.037950186553557,
        "tvd_hw_vs_sim": 0.345947265625,
        "beats_random_null": true,
        "card_kind": "maxcut",
        "n_qubits": 10,
        "p_optimum_sim_aer": 0.08984375,
        "approx_ci_lo": 0.588255467052306,
        "approx_ci_hi": 0.5975518306000002,
        "honest_verdict": "CONCENTRATED: QPU put 0.0400 probability on the optimum, 20.5x the uniform-random null 0.0020 \u2014 genuine signal, not best-of-N."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "N7",
      "item": "N7 \u2014 Tsunami PTF exceedance QAE (sim-only prototype)",
      "category": "estimation",
      "rigor": {
        "card_kind": "mlae_qae",
        "n_qubits": 1,
        "grover_powers": [
          0,
          1,
          2,
          4,
          8
        ],
        "shots_per_level": 256,
        "n_queries": 8960,
        "p_true": 0.19312610938196512,
        "hw_hits": [
          44,
          244,
          159,
          170,
          246
        ],
        "sim_hits": [
          60,
          241,
          140,
          171,
          253
        ],
        "hw_a_hat": 0.18995845900245176,
        "hw_abs_err": 0.0031676503795133593,
        "sim_a_hat": 0.1936696706326121,
        "sim_abs_err": 0.0005435612506469734,
        "mc_mean_abs_err": 0.0030676887287233385,
        "mc_err_ci95": [
          null,
          null
        ],
        "hw_below_mc_ci_lo": false,
        "sim_below_mc_ci_lo": false,
        "verdict": "Quantum edge ERODED under hardware noise: HW MLAE abs-err 0.0032 exceeds MC mean 0.0031."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "N5",
      "item": "N5 \u2014 SO2/degassing-vs-smoke fidelity kernel (4q, capped)",
      "category": "kernel",
      "rigor": {
        "card_kind": "kernel",
        "n_qubits": 4,
        "n_total": 462,
        "n_pos": 33,
        "n_neg": 429,
        "exact_sim_qk_loo_auc_fulldata": 0.8361234724871088,
        "matched_rbf_loo_auc_fulldata": 0.9520378611287702,
        "published_classical_ref": {
          "note": "no published RBF reference for this exact 4-feature SO2/smoke split; matched RBF computed in-item as the classical bar.",
          "rbf_auc": null
        },
        "n_landmarks": 6,
        "landmark_labels": [
          1,
          1,
          0,
          1,
          0,
          0
        ],
        "hw_measured_kernel_loo_auc_landmarks": 0.0,
        "exact_sim_kernel_loo_auc_landmarks": 0.0,
        "kernel_mean_abs_entry_error_hw_vs_sim": 0.010117864125417955,
        "kernel_rmse_entry_hw_vs_sim": 0.012587179473722015,
        "kernel_max_abs_entry_error_hw_vs_sim": 0.030736070074644684,
        "landmark_auc_degenerate_small_n": true,
        "verdict": "Full-data exact-sim QK AUC 0.836 <= matched classical RBF 0.952 (classification stays CLASSICAL-favoured / TIE). On hardware, the 6-landmark fidelity sub-kernel is recovered with RMSE 0.013 per entry vs exact sim (shot-noise degradation). The n=6 landmark LOO-AUC is statistically degenerate and is reported for completeness only \u2014 the honest verdict is the full-data AUC: no quantum advantage in classification, confirmed not overturned by hardware."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "N8",
      "item": "N8 \u2014 Etna volcanic-vs-wildfire fidelity QK (4q, Nystrom, capped)",
      "category": "kernel",
      "rigor": {
        "card_kind": "kernel",
        "n_qubits": 4,
        "n_total": 437,
        "n_pos": 33,
        "n_neg": 404,
        "exact_sim_qk_loo_auc_fulldata": 0.7818031803180318,
        "matched_rbf_loo_auc_fulldata": 0.9353435343534353,
        "published_classical_ref": {
          "full_rbf_auc": 0.936,
          "full_quantum_auc": 0.837,
          "source": "ADRIZ_Q_CONSOLIDATED_ASSESSMENT.md (fusion lane)",
          "rbf_auc": 0.936
        },
        "n_landmarks": 6,
        "landmark_labels": [
          1,
          0,
          0,
          1,
          1,
          0
        ],
        "hw_measured_kernel_loo_auc_landmarks": 0.0,
        "exact_sim_kernel_loo_auc_landmarks": 0.0,
        "kernel_mean_abs_entry_error_hw_vs_sim": 0.03411450240209303,
        "kernel_rmse_entry_hw_vs_sim": 0.05079365986393184,
        "kernel_max_abs_entry_error_hw_vs_sim": 0.11993798767554409,
        "landmark_auc_degenerate_small_n": true,
        "verdict": "Full-data exact-sim QK AUC 0.782 <= matched classical RBF 0.935 (classification stays CLASSICAL-favoured / TIE). On hardware, the 6-landmark fidelity sub-kernel is recovered with RMSE 0.051 per entry vs exact sim (shot-noise degradation). The n=6 landmark LOO-AUC is statistically degenerate and is reported for completeness only \u2014 the honest verdict is the full-data AUC: no quantum advantage in classification, confirmed not overturned by hardware."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "N9",
      "item": "N9 \u2014 Thermal FIRMS hot/cold fidelity QK (4q, capped)",
      "category": "kernel",
      "rigor": {
        "card_kind": "kernel",
        "n_qubits": 4,
        "n_total": 462,
        "n_pos": 231,
        "n_neg": 231,
        "exact_sim_qk_loo_auc_fulldata": 0.968591293266618,
        "matched_rbf_loo_auc_fulldata": 0.9991379471898952,
        "published_classical_ref": {
          "qk_auc": 0.906,
          "qk_ci": [
            0.874,
            0.938
          ],
          "rbf_auc": 0.913,
          "rbf_ci": [
            0.892,
            0.932
          ],
          "source": "ADRIZ_Q_CONSOLIDATED_ASSESSMENT.md (Thermal row) \u2014 TIE"
        },
        "n_landmarks": 6,
        "landmark_labels": [
          1,
          0,
          1,
          0,
          0,
          1
        ],
        "hw_measured_kernel_loo_auc_landmarks": 0.0,
        "exact_sim_kernel_loo_auc_landmarks": 0.0,
        "kernel_mean_abs_entry_error_hw_vs_sim": 0.015705865544391736,
        "kernel_rmse_entry_hw_vs_sim": 0.022261893331330686,
        "kernel_max_abs_entry_error_hw_vs_sim": 0.05635812006633806,
        "landmark_auc_degenerate_small_n": true,
        "verdict": "Full-data exact-sim QK AUC 0.969 <= matched classical RBF 0.999 (classification stays CLASSICAL-favoured / TIE). On hardware, the 6-landmark fidelity sub-kernel is recovered with RMSE 0.022 per entry vs exact sim (shot-noise degradation). The n=6 landmark LOO-AUC is statistically degenerate and is reported for completeness only \u2014 the honest verdict is the full-data AUC: no quantum advantage in classification, confirmed not overturned by hardware."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "N10",
      "item": "N10 \u2014 Geomag storm/quiet fidelity QK (4q, capped)",
      "category": "kernel",
      "rigor": {
        "card_kind": "kernel",
        "n_qubits": 4,
        "n_total": 60,
        "n_pos": 30,
        "n_neg": 30,
        "exact_sim_qk_loo_auc_fulldata": 0.91,
        "matched_rbf_loo_auc_fulldata": 1.0,
        "published_classical_ref": {
          "fqk_auc": 0.902,
          "fqk_ci": [
            0.889,
            0.916
          ],
          "rbf_auc": 0.905,
          "rbf_ci": [
            0.875,
            0.936
          ],
          "source": "ADRIZ_Q_CONSOLIDATED_ASSESSMENT.md (Geomag row, INTERMAGNET DUR) \u2014 TIE"
        },
        "n_landmarks": 6,
        "landmark_labels": [
          0,
          1,
          0,
          0,
          1,
          1
        ],
        "hw_measured_kernel_loo_auc_landmarks": 0.4444444444444444,
        "exact_sim_kernel_loo_auc_landmarks": 0.4444444444444444,
        "kernel_mean_abs_entry_error_hw_vs_sim": 0.01864967849796342,
        "kernel_rmse_entry_hw_vs_sim": 0.02463052869924575,
        "kernel_max_abs_entry_error_hw_vs_sim": 0.05746646579959347,
        "landmark_auc_degenerate_small_n": true,
        "verdict": "Full-data exact-sim QK AUC 0.910 <= matched classical RBF 1.000 (classification stays CLASSICAL-favoured / TIE). On hardware, the 6-landmark fidelity sub-kernel is recovered with RMSE 0.025 per entry vs exact sim (shot-noise degradation). The n=6 landmark LOO-AUC is statistically degenerate and is reported for completeness only \u2014 the honest verdict is the full-data AUC: no quantum advantage in classification, confirmed not overturned by hardware."
      }
    }
  ]
}