{
  "meta": {
    "title": "ADRIZ-vs-INGV self-grading (auto-comparison)",
    "generated_utc": "2026-06-27T20:32:05Z",
    "ingv_source": "INGV Osservatorio Etneo weekly bulletin, via Smithsonian GVP (vn 211060)",
    "ingv_reports_total": 362,
    "our_obs_dates": 33,
    "overlapping_dates_graded": 19,
    "alignment": "Each OUR observation date is aligned to the INGV weekly bulletin whose window contains it (+-3 day slack). INGV bulletins are WEEKLY; our signals are per-overpass.",
    "dimensions_explained": {
      "volcanic_active": "HEADLINE independent grade: (our S5P SO2 plume OR our on-edifice FIRMS thermal) vs INGV non-quiescent state.",
      "so2_plume_vs_ingv_degassing": "our independent S5P summit SO2 plume flag vs INGV volcanic-activity (non-quiescent).",
      "fire_vs_ingv_thermal": "our FIRMS NRT active-fire call (independent third-party thermal) vs INGV effusive/paroxysm/lava.",
      "state_transcription": "our derived activity label vs INGV state -- NOT independent (our label is compiled from GVP/INGV); measures transcription consistency only."
    },
    "honesty": "Overlap is thin and historical: our S5P/EMIT campaign sampled ~30 dates over 2023-2026, so n per dimension is small -- every rate carries a Wilson 95% CI and should be read as indicative, not a production accuracy. SO2 plume-presence is not an eruptive-state classifier; we grade volcanic-activity-present (binary), not magnitude. 'state_transcription' is explicitly non-independent and excluded from any accuracy claim about our SENSING."
  },
  "summary": {
    "volcanic_active": {
      "agree": 19,
      "n": 19,
      "rate": 1.0,
      "wilson_ci95": [
        0.8318,
        1.0
      ],
      "independent": true,
      "class_balance_warning": "Graded overlap contains 0 INGV-quiescent week(s); the volcanic_active rate is therefore recall-ONLY (no negatives tested). INGV-state distribution of graded dates: {'effusive': 6, 'paroxysm': 6, 'strombolian': 6, 'ash_emission': 1}."
    },
    "so2_plume_vs_ingv_degassing": {
      "agree": 3,
      "n": 5,
      "rate": 0.6,
      "wilson_ci95": [
        0.2307,
        0.8824
      ],
      "independent": true
    },
    "fire_vs_ingv_thermal": {
      "agree": 12,
      "n": 19,
      "rate": 0.6316,
      "wilson_ci95": [
        0.4104,
        0.8085
      ],
      "independent": true
    },
    "state_transcription": {
      "agree": 6,
      "n": 19,
      "rate": 0.3158,
      "wilson_ci95": [
        0.1536,
        0.5399
      ],
      "independent": false
    },
    "state_within_one_level": {
      "agree": 9,
      "n": 19,
      "rate": 0.4737,
      "wilson_ci95": [
        0.2733,
        0.6829
      ],
      "independent": false
    }
  },
  "per_date": [
    {
      "obs_date": "2025-08-21",
      "ingv_window": "20 August-26 August 2025",
      "ingv_state": "effusive",
      "ingv_lava": true,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": null,
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": true,
        "so2_enh_DU": 3.5,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 94.05,
        "state_label": "effusive"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "so2_plume": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv_active": true,
          "our_enh_DU": 3.5,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 94.05,
          "ingv_thermal": true,
          "ingv_state": "effusive",
          "match": true
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "effusive",
          "ingv": "effusive",
          "match": true,
          "within_one_level": true,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2025-08-03",
      "ingv_window": "6 August-12 August 2025",
      "ingv_state": "effusive",
      "ingv_lava": true,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": null,
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 0.81,
        "state_label": "strombolian"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 0.81,
          "ingv_thermal": true,
          "ingv_state": "effusive",
          "match": true
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "strombolian",
          "ingv": "effusive",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": true,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2025-07-30",
      "ingv_window": "30 July-5 August 2025",
      "ingv_state": "strombolian",
      "ingv_lava": null,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": null,
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 0.87,
        "state_label": "strombolian"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 0.87,
          "ingv_thermal": false,
          "ingv_state": "strombolian",
          "match": false
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "strombolian",
          "ingv": "strombolian",
          "match": true,
          "within_one_level": true,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2025-07-26",
      "ingv_window": "23 July-29 July 2025",
      "ingv_state": "ash_emission",
      "ingv_lava": null,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": null,
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 0.74,
        "state_label": "quiescent"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 0.74,
          "ingv_thermal": false,
          "ingv_state": "ash_emission",
          "match": false
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "quiescent",
          "ingv": "ash_emission",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": true,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2025-06-18",
      "ingv_window": "18 June-24 June 2025",
      "ingv_state": "effusive",
      "ingv_lava": true,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": null,
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 29.97,
        "state_label": "quiescent"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 29.97,
          "ingv_thermal": true,
          "ingv_state": "effusive",
          "match": true
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "quiescent",
          "ingv": "effusive",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": false,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2025-04-25",
      "ingv_window": "23 April-29 April 2025",
      "ingv_state": "effusive",
      "ingv_lava": true,
      "ingv_ash": false,
      "ingv_acc": null,
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 5.8,
        "state_label": "strombolian"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 5.8,
          "ingv_thermal": true,
          "ingv_state": "effusive",
          "match": true
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "strombolian",
          "ingv": "effusive",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": true,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2025-02-11",
      "ingv_window": "12 February-18 February 2025",
      "ingv_state": "effusive",
      "ingv_lava": true,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": "red",
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": false,
        "so2_enh_DU": -0.76,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 43.88,
        "state_label": "effusive"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "so2_plume": {
          "ours": false,
          "ingv_active": true,
          "our_enh_DU": -0.76,
          "match": false
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 43.88,
          "ingv_thermal": true,
          "ingv_state": "effusive",
          "match": true
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "effusive",
          "ingv": "effusive",
          "match": true,
          "within_one_level": true,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2024-10-14",
      "ingv_window": "16 October-22 October 2024",
      "ingv_state": "strombolian",
      "ingv_lava": null,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": "yellow",
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 9.29,
        "state_label": "strombolian"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 9.29,
          "ingv_thermal": false,
          "ingv_state": "strombolian",
          "match": false
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "strombolian",
          "ingv": "strombolian",
          "match": true,
          "within_one_level": true,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2024-09-29",
      "ingv_window": "25 September-1 October 2024",
      "ingv_state": "strombolian",
      "ingv_lava": null,
      "ingv_ash": false,
      "ingv_acc": null,
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 19.45,
        "state_label": "strombolian"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 19.45,
          "ingv_thermal": false,
          "ingv_state": "strombolian",
          "match": false
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "strombolian",
          "ingv": "strombolian",
          "match": true,
          "within_one_level": true,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2024-08-17",
      "ingv_window": "14 August-20 August 2024",
      "ingv_state": "paroxysm",
      "ingv_lava": true,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": null,
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 12.64,
        "state_label": "strombolian"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 12.64,
          "ingv_thermal": true,
          "ingv_state": "paroxysm",
          "match": true
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "strombolian",
          "ingv": "paroxysm",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": false,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2024-08-13",
      "ingv_window": "14 August-20 August 2024",
      "ingv_state": "paroxysm",
      "ingv_lava": true,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": null,
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": true,
        "so2_enh_DU": 5.08,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 33.87,
        "state_label": "strombolian"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "so2_plume": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv_active": true,
          "our_enh_DU": 5.08,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 33.87,
          "ingv_thermal": true,
          "ingv_state": "paroxysm",
          "match": true
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "strombolian",
          "ingv": "paroxysm",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": false,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2024-08-06",
      "ingv_window": "31 July-6 August 2024",
      "ingv_state": "paroxysm",
      "ingv_lava": true,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": "orange",
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 32.66,
        "state_label": "strombolian"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 32.66,
          "ingv_thermal": true,
          "ingv_state": "paroxysm",
          "match": true
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "strombolian",
          "ingv": "paroxysm",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": false,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2024-06-10",
      "ingv_window": "12 June-18 June 2024",
      "ingv_state": "strombolian",
      "ingv_lava": null,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": "yellow",
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 0.59,
        "state_label": "quiescent"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 0.59,
          "ingv_thermal": false,
          "ingv_state": "strombolian",
          "match": false
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "quiescent",
          "ingv": "strombolian",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": false,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2024-06-09",
      "ingv_window": "12 June-18 June 2024",
      "ingv_state": "strombolian",
      "ingv_lava": null,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": "yellow",
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 0.59,
        "state_label": "quiescent"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 0.59,
          "ingv_thermal": false,
          "ingv_state": "strombolian",
          "match": false
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "quiescent",
          "ingv": "strombolian",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": false,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2024-04-04",
      "ingv_window": "3 April-9 April 2024",
      "ingv_state": "strombolian",
      "ingv_lava": null,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": "yellow",
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": true,
        "so2_enh_DU": 7.12,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 6.82,
        "state_label": "quiescent"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "so2_plume": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv_active": true,
          "our_enh_DU": 7.12,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 6.82,
          "ingv_thermal": false,
          "ingv_state": "strombolian",
          "match": false
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "quiescent",
          "ingv": "strombolian",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": false,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2023-08-25",
      "ingv_window": "16 August-22 August 2023",
      "ingv_state": "paroxysm",
      "ingv_lava": true,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": "yellow",
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": false,
        "so2_enh_DU": -0.6,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 11.25,
        "state_label": "quiescent"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "so2_plume": {
          "ours": false,
          "ingv_active": true,
          "our_enh_DU": -0.6,
          "match": false
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 11.25,
          "ingv_thermal": true,
          "ingv_state": "paroxysm",
          "match": true
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "quiescent",
          "ingv": "paroxysm",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": false,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2023-08-21",
      "ingv_window": "16 August-22 August 2023",
      "ingv_state": "paroxysm",
      "ingv_lava": true,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": "yellow",
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 2.84,
        "state_label": "strombolian"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 2.84,
          "ingv_thermal": true,
          "ingv_state": "paroxysm",
          "match": true
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "strombolian",
          "ingv": "paroxysm",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": false,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2023-05-30",
      "ingv_window": "24 May-30 May 2023",
      "ingv_state": "paroxysm",
      "ingv_lava": true,
      "ingv_ash": false,
      "ingv_acc": null,
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 4.15,
        "state_label": "quiescent"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 4.15,
          "ingv_thermal": true,
          "ingv_state": "paroxysm",
          "match": true
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "quiescent",
          "ingv": "paroxysm",
          "match": false,
          "within_one_level": false,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "obs_date": "2023-02-04",
      "ingv_window": "1 February-7 February 2023",
      "ingv_state": "effusive",
      "ingv_lava": true,
      "ingv_ash": true,
      "ingv_acc": null,
      "ours": {
        "so2_plume": null,
        "so2_enh_DU": null,
        "fire": true,
        "frp_max": 52.63,
        "state_label": "effusive"
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "volcanic_active": {
          "ours": true,
          "ingv": true,
          "match": true
        },
        "fire_vs_thermal": {
          "ours_fire": true,
          "frp_max": 52.63,
          "ingv_thermal": true,
          "ingv_state": "effusive",
          "match": true
        },
        "state_transcription": {
          "ours": "effusive",
          "ingv": "effusive",
          "match": true,
          "within_one_level": true,
          "independent": false,
          "note": "our per-overpass label vs INGV weekly window; boundary/episode-timing differences expected"
        }
      }
    }
  ]
}